According to the most recent nationwide NBC News survey, Vice President Kamala Harris and former US President Donald Trump are tied for the 2024 presidential candidacy. Trump’s popularity has decreased since a significant rise in the summer, while Harris’s popularity has decreased because of the stark disparity in female support for the two candidates. Before the 2024 election, voters consider abortion to be one of the most important issues to vote on. Both Republican pollster Bill McInturff and Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt have declared the race to be deadlocked.
The third-party vote could play a role, as Trump gets a small boost when third-party candidates are included in the ballot test. The challenge for Kamala Harris is to fill in the blanks voters have about her, while Donald Trump faces the challenge of proving that the chaos and personal behavior that bothered so many about his first term will not get in the way of governing and representing America.
A new poll conducted October 4-8 found that Harris gets support from 48% of registered voters in a head-to-head matchup, while Trump gets an identical 48%. An expanded ballot including third-party candidates also shows this shift, with 47% of registered voters picking Trump, 46% supporting Harris, and a combined 7% picking other candidates or saying they’re undecided. In September, Harris held a 6-point lead on this ballot.
The NBC News poll provides a snapshot of what could happen depending on different turnout scenarios. Assuming a more favorable environment for Republicans, Trump leads Harris by 2 points, 49%-47%. However, assuming a more favorable turnout environment for Democrats, which includes more women, white voters with college degrees, and voters of color, Harris leads Trump by 3 points among registered voters, 49%-46%. All of these results are within the poll’s margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
